ATL @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
ATL Falcons
23
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL76%23
CAR24%16
16
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ATL +2.5 +10.2 pts
MARKET CAR -2.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

ATL
CAR
76% Win Probability 24%
359 Total Yards 294
194 Passing Yards 212
165 Rushing Yards 82
2.1 Sacks 2.4
1.6 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.200 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson118 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Drake London5.3 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.8 rec, 43 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young226 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.7 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 7.7

The sim sides with Falcons: a 7.7-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (23-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 7.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Divine Deablo (Falcons) - winner: Divine Deablo, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 58% of routes for 6.8/9.1, 53 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 3.9 sacks a game — Jalon Walker (2.5 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Falcons' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 50% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, with Jaelan Phillips (3.3 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the go-to for the Falcons, separating on 49% of routes for 40 yds a game.
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the go-to for the Panthers, separating on 58% of routes for 53 yds a game.
  • Divine Deablo (Falcons) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 36% of routes, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bijan Robinson is the workhorse for the Falcons, churning 118 yds a game at 7.3 a carry, churning off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • Chuba Hubbard carries the load for the Panthers, 13 carries for 41 yds a game at 3.1 a carry, doing his damage to the right side with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -7.7
Market lineCAR -2.5
Sim total39
Market total41.5
ATL by 7.7 (76% to win) Projected total 39 pts Bryce Young ~226 pass yds (250+ 26%) Bijan Robinson ~118 rush yds (70+ 76%) Tetairoa McMillan ~66 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 42%)