ATL @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
ATL Falcons
23
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL86%23
CLV14%11
11
CLV Browns
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ATL +1.5 +13.3 pts
MARKET CLV -1.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

ATL
CLV
86% Win Probability 14%
335 Total Yards 216
201 Passing Yards 152
134 Rushing Yards 64
2.9 Sacks 1.7
1.3 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.194 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson88 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.3 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson172 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy4.1 rec, 49 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.1 rec, 41 yds

Falcons by 11.8

The sim sides with Falcons: a 11.8-point edge and a 86% win rate over 50 runs (23-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Xavier Watts, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Ryan Neuzil (Falcons) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 2.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Falcons — a 50% win rate, 5.0 sacks and 21.6 pressures a game (Jalon Walker (2.6 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Browns — a 51% win rate yields only 3.8 sacks and 17.9 pressures a game, led by Jared Verse (1.1 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the go-to for the Falcons, separating on 65% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • Expect the Browns to feed Jerry Jeudy: 3.9 catches for 27 yds a game, open 40% of the time.
  • On the back end, Clark Phillips III (Falcons) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 32% of routes, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bijan Robinson is the workhorse for the Falcons, churning 88 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 13 carries, 39 yds a game (2.9 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -11.8
Market lineCLV -1.5
Sim total34
Market total40.5
ATL by 11.8 (86% to win) Projected total 34 pts Michael Penix Jr. ~194 pass yds (250+ 16%) Bijan Robinson ~88 rush yds (70+ 68%) Drake London ~66 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 44%)