ATL @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
ATL Falcons
29
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ATL84%29
CLV16%15
15
CLV Browns

Projected Team Stats

ATL
CLV
84% Win Probability 16%
399 Total Yards 265
191 Passing Yards 192
207 Rushing Yards 73
3.2 Sacks 1.0
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.171 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson139 rush yds, 1.9 TD
REC Drake London5.3 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts2.7 rec, 32 yds, 0.2 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson214 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins37 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston5.2 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.3 rec, 37 yds

Falcons by 13.6

Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 13.6 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 29-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 9.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Mike Hughes, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Cameron Thomas (Falcons) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Cameron Thomas, winning 57% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 4.0 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Denzel Boston (Browns) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Denzel Boston, open on 62% of routes for 7.1/9.5, 64 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Denzel Ward (Browns) - winner: Drake London, open on 61% of routes for 6.2/8.9, 54 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns' line should hold up: the Falcons win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.7 sacks and 24.7 pressures a game (Samson Ebukam (1.6 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Browns get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (2.1 sacks a game), Jared Verse (0.6 sacks, 4.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the go-to for the Falcons, separating on 61% of routes for 54 yds a game.
  • The Browns will live and die with Denzel Boston, who comes open 62% of the time (64 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Tyson Campbell (Browns): 42% separation allowed, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson, 16 carries for 139 yds a game at 9.0 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • The Browns hand it to Quinshon Judkins early and often, 13 carries for 37 yds a game at 2.9 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

ATL by 13.6 (84% to win) Projected total 44 pts Deshaun Watson ~214 pass yds (250+ 18%) Bijan Robinson ~139 rush yds (70+ 82%) Denzel Boston ~82 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 58%)