ATL @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ATL Falcons
23
PROJECTION
ATL 35 – GB 14
Week 3 50-sim average Thu 24 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
ATL60%23 35
GB40%21 14
21
GB Packers
✓ RESULT ATL by 21 model ATL by 1.6, off by 19.4
✓ VALUE ATL +5.5 WIN line at publish GB -5.5
• TOTAL 49 pts OVER O/U 43.5, model 44

Projected Team Stats

ATL
GB
60% Win Probability 40%
360 Total Yards 300
231 Passing Yards 259
130 Rushing Yards 41
1.3 Sacks 2.1
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.241 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson85 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London7.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.4 rec, 41 yds, 0.4 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love266 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd12 rush yds
REC Christian Watson5.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Matthew Golden3.3 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Falcons by 1.6

Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 1.6 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs CJ Henderson (Falcons) - winner: CJ Henderson, holding him to 1.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Jake Matthews (Falcons) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.7 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 63% of routes for 6.7/9.2, 68 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Carrington Valentine (Packers) - winner: Drake London, open on 62% of routes for 8.1/12.5, 62 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 2.8 sacks a game, and Samson Ebukam (0.5 sacks, 4.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.4 sacks a game), with Barryn Sorrell (1.1 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Falcons lean on Drake London, good for 8.1 catches and 62 yds a game while breaking open on 62% of his routes.
  • The Packers lean on Christian Watson, good for 6.7 catches and 68 yds a game while breaking open on 63% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Divine Deablo (Falcons), who yields separation on 38% of routes, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bijan Robinson is the workhorse for the Falcons, churning 85 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Packers hand it to MarShawn Lloyd early and often, 10 carries for 12 yds a game at 1.2 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -1.6
Market lineGB -5.5
Sim total44
Market total43.5
ATL by 1.6 (60% to win) Projected total 44 pts Jordan Love ~266 pass yds (250+ 60%) Bijan Robinson ~85 rush yds (70+ 64%) Drake London ~89 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 68%)