ATL @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 3 slate
ATL Falcons
21
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL50%21
GB50%21
21
GB Packers
BET VALUE
Lean ATL +7.5 +7.2 pts
MARKET GB -7.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

ATL
GB
50% Win Probability 50%
356 Total Yards 309
215 Passing Yards 250
140 Rushing Yards 59
1.8 Sacks 2.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.225 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson89 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Drake London5.6 rec, 73 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.4 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love255 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs38 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson5.6 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.5 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 0.3

Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 0.3 (21-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Carrington Valentine (Packers) - winner: Carrington Valentine, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Divine Deablo (Falcons) - winner: Divine Deablo, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Packers — a 50% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 21.4 pressures a game, with Micah Parsons (4.2 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 51% win rate yields only 3.0 sacks and 19.4 pressures a game, with Jalon Walker (1.6 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson is the engine of the Packers' passing game — 78 yds a game on 57% separation.
  • Through the air it is Drake London's show for the Falcons: 50 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Carrington Valentine (Packers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 42% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers' run game leans on Josh Jacobs — 14 carries, 38 yds a game (2.7 a carry) into a stout front.
  • The Falcons hand it to Bijan Robinson early and often, 17 carries for 89 yds a game at 5.4 a carry, finding room off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -0.3
Market lineGB -7.5
Sim total42
Market total46.5
GB by 0.3 (50% to win) Projected total 42 pts Jordan Love ~255 pass yds (250+ 42%) Bijan Robinson ~89 rush yds (70+ 68%) Christian Watson ~87 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 64%)