ATL @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
ATL Falcons
23
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL72%23
MIN28%17
17
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ATL +4.5 +10.8 pts
MARKET MIN -4.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

ATL
MIN
72% Win Probability 28%
344 Total Yards 275
211 Passing Yards 199
133 Rushing Yards 76
2.7 Sacks 1.9
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.217 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson91 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.2 rec, 38 yds, 0.4 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray217 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.0 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.2 rec, 51 yds, 0.1 TD

Falcons by 6.3

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 72% of them, by 6.3 on average (23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Tavierre Thomas (Vikings) - winner: Tavierre Thomas, holding him to 14 yds on just 34% open, 0.4 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Billy Bowman Jr., holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Justin Jefferson, open on 59% of routes for 6.5/8.3, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Falcons win just 49% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, led by Jalon Walker (2.9 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 49% of their reps, mustering 3.7 sacks and 17.6 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (2.2 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Drake London headlines the Falcons' receiving corps — 5.3 catches for 54 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • Justin Jefferson headlines the Vikings' receiving corps — 6.5 catches for 54 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • On the back end, Divine Deablo (Falcons) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 32% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons hand it to Bijan Robinson early and often, 14 carries for 91 yds a game at 6.5 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Vikings lean on Aaron Jones, 11 carries for 35 yds a game at 3.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -6.3
Market lineMIN -4.5
Sim total40
Market total43.5
ATL by 6.3 (72% to win) Projected total 40 pts Kyler Murray ~217 pass yds (250+ 30%) Bijan Robinson ~91 rush yds (70+ 64%) Drake London ~75 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 46%)