ATL @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 4 slate
ATL Falcons
23
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL66%23
NO34%19
19
NO Saints
BET VALUE
Lean ATL +2.5 +6.9 pts
MARKET NO -2.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

ATL
NO
66% Win Probability 34%
360 Total Yards 312
228 Passing Yards 242
132 Rushing Yards 71
1.7 Sacks 2.1
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.234 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson86 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.6 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.43 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave6.0 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson5.1 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 4.4

Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 4.4 and winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.5 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Quincy Riley, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints' line should hold up: the Falcons win just 50% of their reps, mustering 2.9 sacks and 11.3 pressures a game — Jalon Walker (2.4 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.5 sacks a game — Chase Young (3.1 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Falcons' aerial attack runs through Drake London (58 yds a game, open on 58% of routes).
  • The Saints will live and die with Chris Olave, who comes open 58% of the time (76 yds a game).
  • On the back end, Divine Deablo (Falcons) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 37% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson, 15 carries for 86 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. sets the tempo for the Saints — 43 yds a game on the ground at 3.9 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -4.4
Market lineNO -2.5
Sim total42
Market total45.5
ATL by 4.4 (66% to win) Projected total 42 pts Tyler Shough ~251 pass yds (250+ 48%) Bijan Robinson ~86 rush yds (70+ 66%) Chris Olave ~81 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 70%)