ATL @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ATL Falcons
21
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL54%21
PIT46%20
20
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
MARKET PIT -3 · O/U 42

Projected Team Stats

ATL
PIT
54% Win Probability 46%
321 Total Yards 319
201 Passing Yards 240
120 Rushing Yards 79
1.4 Sacks 2.2
1.3 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.211 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson83 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Drake London5.7 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.4 rec, 36 yds, 0.3 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.5 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.7 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 0.9

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 54% of them, by 0.9 on average (21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs DeShon Elliott (Steelers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Jamel Dean, holding him to 12 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 50% win rate yields only 2.7 sacks and 6.9 pressures a game, led by Jalon Walker (2.5 sacks, 3.4 pressures a game).
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Steelers win just 52% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 23.2 pressures a game, and T.J. Watt (1.4 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Drake London should find soft spots all day, open 53% of the time for 51 yds a game.
  • D.K. Metcalf headlines the Steelers' receiving corps — 6.4 catches for 50 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Jamel Dean (Steelers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons' run game leans on Bijan Robinson — 15 carries, 83 yds a game (5.5 a carry), with his best work off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 13 carries for 54 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -0.9
Market linePIT -3
Sim total41
Market total42
ATL by 0.9 (54% to win) Projected total 41 pts Aaron Rodgers ~246 pass yds (250+ 44%) Bijan Robinson ~83 rush yds (70+ 64%) Drake London ~76 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 52%)