ATL @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
ATL Falcons
26
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL78%26
TB22%16
16
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ATL +4.5 +13.9 pts
MARKET TB -4.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

ATL
TB
78% Win Probability 22%
364 Total Yards 296
215 Passing Yards 216
149 Rushing Yards 81
1.8 Sacks 2.0
1.0 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.211 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson100 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London6.0 rec, 76 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.8 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield227 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving31 rush yds
REC Chris Godwin4.8 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen McMillan3.1 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 9.4

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 78% of them, by 9.4 on average (26-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Billy Bowman Jr., holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Zyon McCollum (Buccaneers) - winner: Zyon McCollum, holding him to 19 yds on just 40% open, 0.5 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) vs Jawaan Taylor (Falcons) - winner: Rueben Bain Jr., winning 56% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Drake London, open on 61% of routes for 6.4/9.6, 54 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Falcons — a 48% win rate, 3.8 sacks and 21.1 pressures a game — Jalon Walker (2.3 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.4 sacks a game), led by Elijah Roberts (0.9 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the go-to for the Falcons, separating on 61% of routes for 54 yds a game.
  • Chris Godwin is the go-to for the Buccaneers, separating on 48% of routes for 46 yds a game.
  • Divine Deablo (Falcons) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 35% of routes, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Bijan Robinson: 100 yds a game at 6.2 a carry for the Falcons, finding room off the right edge.
  • The Buccaneers hand it to Bucky Irving early and often, 12 carries for 31 yds a game at 2.6 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -9.4
Market lineTB -4.5
Sim total42
Market total46.5
ATL by 9.4 (78% to win) Projected total 42 pts Baker Mayfield ~227 pass yds (250+ 36%) Bijan Robinson ~100 rush yds (70+ 80%) Drake London ~76 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 58%)