ATL @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ATL Falcons
29
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ATL88%29
WAS12%18
18
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ATL +3.5 +14.9 pts
MARKET WAS -3.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

ATL
WAS
88% Win Probability 12%
415 Total Yards 269
231 Passing Yards 188
185 Rushing Yards 81
2.6 Sacks 1.9
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.225 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson130 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC Drake London5.5 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.6 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels207 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.9 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.4 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 11.4

Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 11.4 (29-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Drake London, open on 63% of routes for 5.8/8.3, 53 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' quarterback should have time; the Falcons win just 50% of reps for 5.3 sacks a game, led by Jalon Walker (3.1 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game).
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.8 sacks and 17.0 pressures a game (Odafe Oweh (2.8 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the engine of the Falcons' passing game — 53 yds a game on 63% separation.
  • Look for Terry McLaurin to eat: 5.9 catches and 52 yds a game for the Commanders.
  • In coverage, Divine Deablo (Falcons) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Bijan Robinson sets the tempo for the Falcons — 130 yds a game on the ground at 8.1 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The Commanders hand it to Jacory Croskey-Merritt early and often, 13 carries for 44 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -11.4
Market lineWAS -3.5
Sim total47
Market total46.5
ATL by 11.4 (88% to win) Projected total 47 pts Michael Penix Jr. ~225 pass yds (250+ 36%) Bijan Robinson ~130 rush yds (70+ 86%) Drake London ~75 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 48%)