ATL @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ATL Falcons
24
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ATL72%24
WAS28%18
18
WAS Commanders

Projected Team Stats

ATL
WAS
72% Win Probability 28%
365 Total Yards 297
205 Passing Yards 206
160 Rushing Yards 91
2.7 Sacks 1.3
0.9 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.202 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson97 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London5.8 rec, 80 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.1 rec, 37 yds, 0.4 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels225 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.6 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.5 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 6.8

Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 6.8 (24-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Jeremy Reaves (Commanders) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 6.9/9.8, 62 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' quarterback should have time; the Falcons win just 51% of reps for 5.6 sacks a game, led by Samson Ebukam (1.7 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game).
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 51% of their reps, mustering 2.7 sacks and 10.8 pressures a game (Odafe Oweh (2.1 sacks, 4.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the engine of the Falcons' passing game — 62 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • Look for Terry McLaurin to eat: 5.4 catches and 48 yds a game for the Commanders.
  • In coverage, Amik Robertson (Commanders) travels and erases — only 39% separation allowed — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Bijan Robinson sets the tempo for the Falcons — 97 yds a game on the ground at 6.3 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The Commanders hand it to Jacory Croskey-Merritt early and often, 12 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

ATL by 6.8 (72% to win) Projected total 42 pts Jayden Daniels ~225 pass yds (250+ 32%) Bijan Robinson ~97 rush yds (70+ 68%) Drake London ~80 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 52%)