Arch Manning QB Texas |
NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
| Jersey: #16 PLAY STYLE: Mobile Pocket Passer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Last Updated: 08/03/2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Draft Year: 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FORTY time: 4.62 seconds (88%*) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Age: 21.3 DOB: 04/27/2005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Jersey: #16 | |
| PLAY STYLE: Mobile Pocket Passer | |
| Last Updated: 08/03/2026 | |
| Draft Year: 2027 | |
| Forty time: 4.62 seconds (88%*) | |
| Age: 21.3 DOB: 04/27/2005 | |
| Overall Rating: |
91.0 / 100
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| Average rating of opposition Defense player has faced | ||
| Defense Rating: |
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80% |
| Click the links below to view how player ranks vs other prospects. | ||
| Release Speed: |
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83% |
| Short Passing: |
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79% |
| Medium Passing: |
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88% |
| Long Passing: |
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94% |
| Rush/Scramble: |
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84% |
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DRAFT PROJECTION:
1st - Top 5
Overall Rank:
#4
Position rank:
#3 (QB)
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| College Games: 21 College Snaps: 1099 | ||
ESPN RATING: 93/100
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247 RATING: 100/100
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RIVALS RATING: 6.1 (100%)
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| Player Comparison* (Similarity level) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye - North Carolina |
|
92% |
| Jayden Daniels - LSU |
|
83% |
| Hendon Hooker - Tennessee |
|
81% |
Draft Profile: Bio
Arch Manning grew up at Isidore Newman School in New Orleans, the same school where his uncles Eli and Peyton played. He rewrote both of their passing records before graduating, finishing his prep career with 8,599 passing yards, 115 touchdowns, and just 20 interceptions across four years as a starter. Every major recruiting service rated him a five-star prospect and the consensus number one overall recruit in the 2023 class.Manning enrolled at Texas and redshirted behind Quinn Ewers in 2023, seeing only mop-up snaps in two games. His 2024 role expanded to ten appearances, mostly in designed packages, though an Ewers injury gave him two starts. He completed nearly 68 percent of his passes across 90 attempts, throwing nine touchdowns against two interceptions and flashing serious playmaking ability in limited reps.
The 2025 season was his first as the full-time starter. Manning threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns with seven interceptions across 13 starts, adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores. Texas finished 10-3, winning seven of their final eight games after a rocky start.
Scouting Report: Strengths
- Rare athlete for the position, with the speed to punish lost contain for chunk yards
- Deep ball jumps off his hand; the Arkansas tape shows four scores and 389 yards
- Compact release with natural zip on in-breakers when his base is set
- Climbs and slides in the pocket without panic rather than bailing early
- Forces defenses to choose between spying him and covering, a real schematic conflict
- Throwing receivers open by November, with clear growth on the Sam Houston and Vanderbilt tape
- Took command at the line late in the year, identifying protections with authority
- Led Texas with eight rushing scores, a genuine short-yardage and red-zone weapon
Scouting Report: Weaknesses
- Misses too many easy ones, with spotty short accuracy and a sixty-one percent year
- Base narrows under pressure and the release point wanders, the root of the misses
- Carries a high turnover-worthy rate, holding for the perfect picture over the checkdown
Scouting Report: Summary
Manning was the consensus No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class, the grandson of Archie and nephew of Peyton and Eli, and 2025 was his first year as the full-time Texas starter after two seasons of spot duty. He entered as the Heisman favorite and the results were streaky, 26 touchdowns against 7 interceptions across 13 starts with losses to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia, but the arm talent and the athleticism are first-round caliber. The deep ball jumps off his hand at every launch point, and he is a true dual-threat who led the team with eight rushing scores.The encouraging part is the trajectory. His passing improved meaningfully from September to December, and scouts who only watched the early film are working with incomplete information. By November he was throwing with anticipation rather than waiting on separation, the Sam Houston and Vanderbilt tape shows it, and he was barking out protections at the line with command. When contain breaks he punishes it, and that conflict between spying him and covering his receivers is schematic gold for a coordinator.
The flaws are mechanical and they are real. He misses too many layups, a short-accuracy problem rooted in his feet; under pressure his base gets narrow and the release point wanders. He compounds it by holding the ball for the perfect picture instead of taking the checkdown and moving the sticks, and his turnover-worthy rate ran high. Five of his seven picks came in the first five weeks, a clustering that reads like early-season confidence. He returns to Texas for 2026, and how much of the inconsistency was developmental versus structural is the whole evaluation. Overall, the tools, the bloodlines and the back-half growth keep him in early-first-round conversation, with top-five upside if the footwork tightens.
How other scouting services rate Arch Manning (Overall Rank)
All Scouts AverageOverall Rank
8.3
All Scouts AveragePosition Rank
4.0
*Percentile Ranking in Player's Position Group (NFL Combine Historical Data): This percentile reflects how a player's specific statistics rank
in comparison to historical performances at the NFL Combine, specifically within their position group. A higher percentile indicates a better performance.
For instance, being in the 90th percentile for a particular stat means the player outperformed 90% of their peers in that category.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.