BLT @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BLT Ravens
20
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT38%20
ATL62%22
22
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
Lean ATL +4.5 +6.8 pts
MARKET BLT -4.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
ATL
38% Win Probability 62%
318 Total Yards 311
176 Passing Yards 195
142 Rushing Yards 116
1.7 Sacks 2.2
1.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson184 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.9 rec, 68 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.7 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.200 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson75 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London5.6 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.1 rec, 37 yds, 0.3 TD

Falcons by 2.3

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 62% of them, by 2.3 on average (22-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.2 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens' quarterback should have time; the Falcons win just 50% of reps for 4.3 sacks a game, led by Jalon Walker (2.3 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Ravens — a 50% win rate, 3.8 sacks and 17.1 pressures a game (Trey Hendrickson (1.7 sacks, 4.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the engine of the Falcons' passing game — 55 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Zay Flowers should find soft spots all day, open 61% of the time for 47 yds a game.
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 38% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bijan Robinson carries the load for the Falcons, 14 carries for 75 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Derrick Henry is the workhorse for the Ravens, churning 82 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -2.3
Market lineBLT -4.5
Sim total42
Market total48.5
ATL by 2.3 (62% to win) Projected total 42 pts Michael Penix Jr. ~200 pass yds (250+ 12%) Derrick Henry ~82 rush yds (70+ 58%) Zay Flowers ~68 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 42%)