BLT @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
BLT Ravens
27
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT64%27
BUF36%23
23
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
Lean BLT +2.5 +7.1 pts
MARKET BUF -2.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
BUF
64% Win Probability 36%
397 Total Yards 342
214 Passing Yards 214
183 Rushing Yards 129
2.8 Sacks 2.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson221 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry113 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman3.0 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen231 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH James Cook60 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.7 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.4 rec, 44 yds, 0.5 TD

Ravens by 4.6

Ravens are the pick here, favoured by 4.6 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 27-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Derrick Henry, 7.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 65% of routes for 5.3/7.5, 59 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.5 sacks a game (Tavius Robinson (1.5 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Ravens' line should hold up: the Bills win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 23.0 pressures a game — Greg Rousseau (2.3 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Ravens will live and die with Zay Flowers, who comes open 65% of the time (59 yds a game).
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 6.8 catches for 49 yds a game on 42% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens): 38% separation allowed with 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens lean on Derrick Henry, 15 carries for 113 yds a game at 7.3 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • James Cook sets the tempo for the Bills — 60 yds a game on the ground at 4.2 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -4.6
Market lineBUF -2.5
Sim total50
Market total51.5
BLT by 4.6 (64% to win) Projected total 50 pts Josh Allen ~231 pass yds (250+ 36%) Derrick Henry ~113 rush yds (70+ 74%) Zay Flowers ~77 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 54%)