BLT @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
BLT Ravens
18
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT60%18
CAR40%15
15
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -4.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
CAR
60% Win Probability 40%
277 Total Yards 283
137 Passing Yards 203
140 Rushing Yards 80
2.1 Sacks 3.2
1.3 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson159 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry77 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers3.9 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.1 rec, 26 yds, 0.1 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young216 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.9 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD

Ravens by 2.2

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 60% of them, by 2.2 on average (18-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.2 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Roquan Smith (Ravens) - winner: Roquan Smith, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.3 sacks a game), Trey Hendrickson (1.7 sacks, 4.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Ravens' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.3 sacks and 24.0 pressures a game — Jaelan Phillips (3.0 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Ravens lean on Zay Flowers, good for 4.2 catches and 33 yds a game while breaking open on 47% of his routes.
  • The Panthers will live and die with Tetairoa McMillan, who comes open 50% of the time (58 yds a game).
  • On the back end, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 28% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens' run game leans on Derrick Henry — 15 carries, 77 yds a game (5.2 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of Chuba Hubbard: 42 yds a game at 3.1 a carry for the Panthers.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -2.2
Market lineBLT -4.5
Sim total33
Market total46.5
BLT by 2.2 (60% to win) Projected total 33 pts Bryce Young ~216 pass yds (250+ 28%) Derrick Henry ~77 rush yds (70+ 50%) Tetairoa McMillan ~75 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 46%)