BLT @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
BLT Ravens
23
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BLT58%23
CAR42%18
18
CAR Panthers

Projected Team Stats

BLT
CAR
58% Win Probability 42%
351 Total Yards 299
205 Passing Yards 245
146 Rushing Yards 54
2.5 Sacks 2.2
1.3 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson216 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry73 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman3.0 rec, 40 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young259 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard26 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.0 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.1 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

Ravens by 4.4

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 58% of them, by 4.4 on average (23-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.7 sacks and 25.1 pressures a game, and Trenton Simpson (1.7 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Ravens' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 50% of reps for 4.7 sacks a game, Jaelan Phillips (2.6 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers is the engine of the Ravens' passing game — 48 yds a game on 62% separation.
  • Look for Tetairoa McMillan to eat: 7.5 catches and 64 yds a game for the Panthers.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kyle Hamilton (Ravens): 41% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Derrick Henry carries the load for the Ravens, 17 carries for 73 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Panthers ride Chuba Hubbard: 11 carries, 26 yds a game (2.4 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

BLT by 4.4 (58% to win) Projected total 41 pts Bryce Young ~259 pass yds (250+ 56%) Derrick Henry ~73 rush yds (70+ 50%) Tetairoa McMillan ~78 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 64%)