BLT @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 17 slate
BLT Ravens
17
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT28%17
CIN72%24
24
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
Lean CIN -1.5 +5.8 pts
MARKET CIN -1.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
CIN
28% Win Probability 72%
319 Total Yards 345
173 Passing Yards 290
146 Rushing Yards 55
2.7 Sacks 3.7
1.6 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson201 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry86 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.6 rec, 31 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow293 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Chase Brown35 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.9 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 7.3

The model leans Bengals by 7.3, winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 24-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs Dax Hill (Bengals) - winner: Dax Hill, holding him to 11 yds on just 33% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.9 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Corey Bullock (Ravens) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Marlon Humphrey (Ravens) - winner: Marlon Humphrey, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 51% win rate yields only 6.5 sacks and 29.2 pressures a game, Myles Murphy (2.4 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bengals' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 19.8 pressures a game, and Trey Hendrickson (2.4 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the engine of the Bengals' passing game — 90 yds a game on 57% separation.
  • The Ravens' aerial attack runs through Zay Flowers (43 yds a game, open on 52% of routes).
  • On the back end, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 31% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals hand it to Chase Brown early and often, 11 carries for 35 yds a game at 3.2 a carry with tough sledding.
  • On the ground, the Ravens ride Derrick Henry: 17 carries, 86 yds a game (4.9 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -7.3
Market lineCIN -1.5
Sim total41
Market total51.5
CIN by 7.3 (72% to win) Projected total 41 pts Joe Burrow ~293 pass yds (250+ 68%) Derrick Henry ~86 rush yds (70+ 62%) Ja'Marr Chase ~92 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 74%)