BLT @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

BLT Ravens

PROJECTION

Week 6 50-sim average

	WIN%	PTS
BLT	72%	18
CLV	28%	11

CLV Browns

BET VALUE

MARKET BLT -6.5 · O/U 44.5

BLT

CLV

72% Win Probability 28%

290 Total Yards 212

162 Passing Yards 142

128 Rushing Yards 70

2.9 Sacks 2.7

1.4 Turnovers 0.9

BLT

PASS

Lamar Jackson174 pass yds, 1.0 TD

RUSH

Derrick Henry76 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Zay Flowers4.3 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Rashod Bateman2.4 rec, 31 yds, 0.2 TD

CLV

PASS

Deshaun Watson162 pass yds, 0.5 TD

RUSH

Quinshon Judkins44 rush yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Denzel Boston3.4 rec, 41 yds

REC

Jerry Jeudy3.2 rec, 35 yds, 0.1 TD

Ravens are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 18-11).

Keys to the Game

Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Chidobe Awuzie, holding him to 20 yds on just 38% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

In the Trenches

The Browns' quarterback should have time; the Ravens win just 51% of reps for 4.9 sacks a game, Tavius Robinson (1.4 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
Pressure could be scarce for the Browns — a 50% win rate, 4.8 sacks and 24.1 pressures a game (Jared Verse (2.0 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).

Through the Air

Zay Flowers is the go-to for the Ravens, separating on 62% of routes for 48 yds a game.
KC Concepcion is the go-to for the Browns, separating on 57% of routes for 20 yds a game.
In coverage, Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed, good for 0.6 INT a game.

On the Ground

Derrick Henry carries the load for the Ravens, 15 carries for 76 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, finding room to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
Quinshon Judkins carries the load for the Browns, 13 carries for 44 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.