BLT @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BLT Ravens
20
PROJECTION
BLT 10 – CLV 13
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
BLT74%20 10
CLV26%12 13
12
CLV Browns
✗ RESULT CLV by 3 model BLT by 7.8, off by 10.8
✗ SPREAD BLT -4.5 LOSS line at publish BLT -4.5
✓ TOTAL 23 pts UNDER O/U 41.5, model 32 lean under

Projected Team Stats

BLT
CLV
74% Win Probability 26%
319 Total Yards 214
184 Passing Yards 167
134 Rushing Yards 47
3.0 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson193 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.3 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.7 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson188 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins22 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston4.7 rec, 72 yds, 0.1 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.5 rec, 33 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 7.8

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 74% of them, by 7.8 on average (20-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Cam Jurgens (Ravens) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 55% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns' quarterback should have time; the Ravens win just 50% of reps for 5.6 sacks a game, Trenton Simpson (2.0 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Browns — a 51% win rate, 4.7 sacks and 25.9 pressures a game (Jared Verse (2.1 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers is the go-to for the Ravens, separating on 59% of routes for 41 yds a game.
  • Denzel Boston is the go-to for the Browns, separating on 54% of routes for 56 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Ravens ride Derrick Henry: 17 carries, 68 yds a game (4.0 a carry), finding room to the right side.
  • Quinshon Judkins sets the tempo for the Browns — 22 yds a game on the ground at 2.1 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -7.8
Market lineBLT -4.5
Sim total32
Market total41.5
BLT by 7.8 (74% to win) Projected total 32 pts Lamar Jackson ~193 pass yds (250+ 18%) Derrick Henry ~68 rush yds (70+ 46%) Denzel Boston ~72 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 48%)