BLT @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BLT Ravens
20
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT36%20
DAL64%24
24
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
Lean DAL +2.5 +6.2 pts
MARKET BLT -2.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
DAL
36% Win Probability 64%
317 Total Yards 364
192 Passing Yards 257
125 Rushing Yards 107
2.3 Sacks 2.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson209 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Zay Flowers5.4 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.7 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.3 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 3.7

Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 3.7 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 56% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 4.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs DaRon Bland (Cowboys) - winner: DaRon Bland, holding him to 17 yds on just 39% open, 0.5 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Nate Wiggins (Ravens) - winner: George Pickens, open on 62% of routes for 5.7/6.8, 51 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Cobie Durant (Cowboys) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 58% of routes for 5.8/8.4, 54 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cowboys — a 50% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 26.2 pressures a game, led by Rashan Gary (1.6 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game).
  • The Ravens may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.2 sacks a game, and Trey Hendrickson (2.5 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb is the engine of the Cowboys' passing game — 65 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • The Ravens' aerial attack runs through Zay Flowers (54 yds a game, open on 58% of routes).
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Javonte Williams: 55 yds a game at 4.4 a carry for the Cowboys, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Derrick Henry is the workhorse for the Ravens, churning 72 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -3.7
Market lineBLT -2.5
Sim total44
Market total52.5
DAL by 3.7 (64% to win) Projected total 44 pts Dak Prescott ~259 pass yds (250+ 58%) Derrick Henry ~72 rush yds (70+ 40%) Zay Flowers ~77 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 58%)