BLT @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
BLT Ravens
16
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT36%16
HST64%20
20
HST Texans
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
HST
36% Win Probability 64%
270 Total Yards 326
159 Passing Yards 229
111 Rushing Yards 97
1.9 Sacks 3.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson187 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry65 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.7 rec, 32 yds
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud233 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH David Montgomery53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tank Dell2.9 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD

Texans by 4.7

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 4.7 (20-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Ronnie Stanley (Ravens) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 10.0 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 7.3 sacks a game (Will Anderson Jr. (3.6 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Ravens win just 51% of reps for 4.2 sacks a game, Trey Hendrickson (1.8 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Texans' aerial attack runs through Nico Collins (58 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
  • The Ravens' aerial attack runs through Zay Flowers (42 yds a game, open on 49% of routes).
  • In coverage, Jalen Pitre (Texans) travels and erases — only 25% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans hand it to David Montgomery early and often, 13 carries for 53 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • The Ravens' run game leans on Derrick Henry — 16 carries, 65 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -4.7
Market lineHST -1.5
Sim total36
Market total45.5
HST by 4.7 (64% to win) Projected total 36 pts C.J. Stroud ~233 pass yds (250+ 36%) Derrick Henry ~65 rush yds (70+ 36%) Nico Collins ~72 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 48%)