BLT @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION
← Week 12 slate
BLT
BLT
HST
BLT
Ravens
19
PROJECTION
| WIN% | PROJ | |
|---|---|---|
| BLT | 50% | 19 |
| HST | 50% | 20 |
20
HST
Texans
Projected Team Stats
BLTHST
50%
Win Probability
50%
323
Total Yards
301
193
Passing Yards
248
130
Rushing Yards
53
2.1
Sacks
3.2
1.1
Turnovers
1.0
Projected Leaders
BLT
PASS
Lamar Jackson211 pass yds, 1.2 TD
Lamar Jackson211 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry67 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Derrick Henry67 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Zay Flowers5.6 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
Zay Flowers5.6 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Rashod Bateman3.1 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
Rashod Bateman3.1 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
HST
PASS
C.J. Stroud255 pass yds, 1.5 TD
C.J. Stroud255 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery26 rush yds, 0.3 TD
David Montgomery26 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Nico Collins5.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.6 TD
Nico Collins5.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Dalton Schultz3.8 rec, 42 yds, 0.3 TD
Dalton Schultz3.8 rec, 42 yds, 0.3 TD
Texans by 1.2
Run it 50 times and Texans win 50% of them, by 1.2 on average (20-19).
Matchup Breakdown
How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulationsKeys to the Game
- David Montgomery (Texans) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
- Nico Collins (Texans) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 59% of routes for 7.9/9.4, 73 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
- Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 59% of routes for 5.8/8.5, 60 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
- The Texans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 6.5 sacks a game (Will Anderson Jr. (3.3 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
- The Ravens get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), led by Trenton Simpson (1.2 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
- Nico Collins should find soft spots all day, open 59% of the time for 73 yds a game.
- Zay Flowers is the engine of the Ravens' passing game — 60 yds a game on 59% separation.
- Jalen Pitre (Texans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 37% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
- Expect a steady diet of David Montgomery: 26 yds a game at 2.1 a carry for the Texans.
- Derrick Henry is the workhorse for the Ravens, churning 67 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, finding room to the right side.
Model vs Market
HST by 1.2 (50% to win) Projected total 39 pts C.J. Stroud ~255 pass yds (250+ 54%) Derrick Henry ~67 rush yds (70+ 36%) Nico Collins ~84 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 58%)