BLT @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 1 slate
BLT Ravens
17
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT30%17
IND70%22
22
IND Colts
BET VALUE
Lean IND +3.5 +8.4 pts
MARKET BLT -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
IND
30% Win Probability 70%
292 Total Yards 335
154 Passing Yards 224
138 Rushing Yards 111
1.5 Sacks 2.9
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson174 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry81 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.0 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.6 rec, 32 yds, 0.1 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones227 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor75 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.6 TD

Colts by 4.9

Run it 50 times and Colts win 70% of them, by 4.9 on average (22-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Juanyeh Thomas (Colts) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.6 sacks a game), Laiatu Latu (3.0 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Colts' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.2 sacks and 14.6 pressures a game, and Trey Hendrickson (1.6 sacks, 3.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Colts to feed Alec Pierce: 7.0 catches for 59 yds a game, open 52% of the time.
  • Zay Flowers is the go-to for the Ravens, separating on 52% of routes for 41 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kyle Hamilton (Ravens): 33% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jonathan Taylor carries the load for the Colts, 15 carries for 75 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Derrick Henry is the workhorse for the Ravens, churning 81 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -4.9
Market lineBLT -3.5
Sim total38
Market total48.5
IND by 4.9 (70% to win) Projected total 38 pts Daniel Jones ~227 pass yds (250+ 32%) Derrick Henry ~81 rush yds (70+ 62%) Alec Pierce ~75 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 56%)