BLT @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
BLT Ravens
16
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BLT40%16
PIT60%17
17
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -2.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

BLT
PIT
40% Win Probability 60%
260 Total Yards 301
144 Passing Yards 216
116 Rushing Yards 86
1.7 Sacks 3.2
1.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson166 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry69 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.6 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman1.8 rec, 22 yds
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers223 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.6 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD

Steelers by 1.5

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 60% of them, by 1.5 on average (17-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 57% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 3.0 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Roger Rosengarten (Ravens) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 2.8 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), with T.J. Watt (1.7 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Ravens — a 50% win rate, 3.2 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game — Trey Hendrickson (1.6 sacks, 3.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Steelers lean on D.K. Metcalf, good for 6.0 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 46% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Zay Flowers' show for the Ravens: 38 yds a game, open on 51% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kyle Hamilton (Ravens): 32% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren is the workhorse for the Steelers, churning 52 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • The Ravens lean on Derrick Henry, 16 carries for 69 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -1.5
Market lineBLT -2.5
Sim total33
Market total45.5
PIT by 1.5 (60% to win) Projected total 33 pts Aaron Rodgers ~223 pass yds (250+ 36%) Derrick Henry ~69 rush yds (70+ 40%) Zay Flowers ~60 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 30%)