BUF @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
19
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF8%19
DEN92%33
33
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take DEN +1.5 +15.3 pts
MARKET BUF -1.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
DEN
8% Win Probability 92%
304 Total Yards 456
178 Passing Yards 313
127 Rushing Yards 144
2.6 Sacks 3.1
1.3 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen200 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH James Cook58 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.5 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid2.9 rec, 34 yds, 0.2 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix295 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins68 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.3 rec, 93 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.9 rec, 88 yds, 0.7 TD

Broncos by 13.8

The model leans Broncos by 13.8, winning 92% of 50 sims (projected 33-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 37 yds on just 34% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 63% of routes for 7.2/8.7, 69 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Broncos — a 50% win rate yields only 6.7 sacks and 33.5 pressures a game, Jonathon Cooper (2.3 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Broncos' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 50% of reps for 4.9 sacks a game, with Greg Rousseau (2.0 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Broncos to feed Jaylen Waddle: 7.2 catches for 69 yds a game, open 63% of the time.
  • DJ Moore is the engine of the Bills' passing game — 37 yds a game on 34% separation.
  • Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 32% of routes — and 1.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos hand it to J.K. Dobbins early and often, 12 carries for 68 yds a game at 5.9 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • James Cook is the workhorse for the Bills, churning 58 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -13.8
Market lineBUF -1.5
Sim total52
Market total46.5
DEN by 13.8 (92% to win) Projected total 52 pts Bo Nix ~295 pass yds (250+ 66%) J.K. Dobbins ~68 rush yds (70+ 38%) Jaylen Waddle ~93 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 64%)