BUF @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
19
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BUF32%19
DEN68%25
25
DEN Broncos

Projected Team Stats

BUF
DEN
32% Win Probability 68%
316 Total Yards 365
191 Passing Yards 260
125 Rushing Yards 105
2.2 Sacks 3.0
1.3 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen210 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH James Cook62 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DJ Moore5.4 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid2.4 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix265 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle7.1 rec, 101 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Broncos by 6.0

Across 50 simulations, Broncos come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 6.0 (25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Spencer Brown (Bills) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 55% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Ben Powers (Broncos) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 57% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 61% of routes for 8.1/11.1, 78 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Broncos — a 50% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 29.4 pressures a game, Jonah Elliss (2.1 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Broncos' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 51% of reps for 4.4 sacks a game, with Greg Rousseau (1.2 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Broncos to feed Jaylen Waddle: 8.1 catches for 78 yds a game, open 61% of the time.
  • DJ Moore is the engine of the Bills' passing game — 52 yds a game on 46% separation.
  • C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 42% of routes — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • J.K. Dobbins is the workhorse for the Broncos, churning 49 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • James Cook carries the load for the Bills, 14 carries for 62 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

DEN by 6.0 (68% to win) Projected total 45 pts Bo Nix ~265 pass yds (250+ 58%) James Cook ~62 rush yds (70+ 38%) Jaylen Waddle ~101 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 74%)