BUF @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
BUF Bills
19
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF18%19
GB82%27
27
GB Packers
BET VALUE
Lean GB -1.5 +6.6 pts
MARKET GB -1.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
GB
18% Win Probability 82%
325 Total Yards 377
182 Passing Yards 285
143 Rushing Yards 92
1.8 Sacks 3.6
1.0 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen209 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH James Cook68 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.7 rec, 74 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.0 rec, 38 yds, 0.3 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love286 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs58 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Christian Watson5.4 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.8 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Packers by 8.1

Run it 50 times and Packers win 82% of them, by 8.1 on average (27-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 64% of routes for 7.8/8.9, 91 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Aaron Banks (Packers) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 7.3 sacks a game (Micah Parsons (5.0 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Bills win just 52% of their reps, mustering 3.2 sacks and 19.6 pressures a game (Greg Rousseau (1.2 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Packers lean on Christian Watson, good for 7.8 catches and 91 yds a game while breaking open on 64% of his routes.
  • Look for DJ Moore to eat: 6.8 catches and 57 yds a game for the Bills.
  • Keisean Nixon (Packers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 42% of routes with 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers' run game leans on Josh Jacobs — 16 carries, 58 yds a game (3.7 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge.
  • The Bills lean on James Cook, 15 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -8.1
Market lineGB -1.5
Sim total46
Market total49.5
GB by 8.1 (82% to win) Projected total 46 pts Jordan Love ~286 pass yds (250+ 68%) James Cook ~68 rush yds (70+ 48%) Christian Watson ~95 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 64%)