BUF @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
18
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF16%18
HST84%29
29
HST Texans
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take HST +1 +12.6 pts
MARKET BUF -1 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
HST
16% Win Probability 84%
278 Total Yards 413
168 Passing Yards 283
110 Rushing Yards 130
2.4 Sacks 4.4
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen198 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH James Cook53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.5 rec, 62 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.0 rec, 38 yds, 0.4 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud276 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH David Montgomery76 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Nico Collins6.3 rec, 97 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tank Dell3.8 rec, 52 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 11.6

The model leans Texans by 11.6, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 29-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 40 yds on just 34% open, 1.2 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Danielle Hunter (Texans) vs Spencer Brown (Bills) - winner: Danielle Hunter, winning 55% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 9.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: David Montgomery, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Wyatt Teller (Texans) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 55% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 3.0 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 63% of routes for 8.6/10.6, 92 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (9.0 sacks a game), led by Will Anderson Jr. (5.0 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game).
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 52% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, Greg Rousseau (1.6 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Nico Collins should find soft spots all day, open 63% of the time for 92 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is DJ Moore's show for the Bills: 40 yds a game, open on 34% of routes.
  • Kamari Lassiter (Texans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 32% of routes, adding 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery sets the tempo for the Texans — 76 yds a game on the ground at 5.2 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of James Cook: 53 yds a game at 3.6 a carry for the Bills, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -11.6
Market lineBUF -1
Sim total47
Market total44.5
HST by 11.6 (84% to win) Projected total 47 pts C.J. Stroud ~276 pass yds (250+ 60%) David Montgomery ~76 rush yds (70+ 44%) Nico Collins ~97 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 72%)