BUF @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
18
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF12%18
LA88%36
36
LA Rams
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -3 +15.0 pts
MARKET LA -3 · O/U 53.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
LA
12% Win Probability 88%
288 Total Yards 501
186 Passing Yards 333
102 Rushing Yards 169
2.3 Sacks 3.9
1.2 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen213 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH James Cook48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore6.0 rec, 73 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.0 rec, 36 yds, 0.3 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford309 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams79 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua6.5 rec, 93 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.3 rec, 79 yds, 0.5 TD

Rams by 18.0

The model leans Rams by 18.0, winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 36-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 53 yds on just 37% open, 1.2 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 9.7/10.9, 89 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 7.3 sacks a game (Myles Garrett (4.3 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bills — a 51% win rate, 4.9 sacks and 18.6 pressures a game, and Greg Rousseau (1.9 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Rams lean on Puka Nacua, good for 9.7 catches and 89 yds a game while breaking open on 64% of his routes.
  • DJ Moore is the engine of the Bills' passing game — 53 yds a game on 37% separation.
  • On the back end, Trent McDuffie (Rams) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 34% of routes — and 1.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kyren Williams: 79 yds a game at 5.1 a carry for the Rams, with his best work to the right side.
  • The Bills hand it to James Cook early and often, 15 carries for 48 yds a game at 3.3 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -18.0
Market lineLA -3
Sim total54
Market total53.5
LA by 18.0 (88% to win) Projected total 54 pts Matthew Stafford ~309 pass yds (250+ 88%) Kyren Williams ~79 rush yds (70+ 58%) Puka Nacua ~93 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 66%)