BUF @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
25
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF36%25
LV64%29
29
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LV +6.5 +10.4 pts
MARKET BUF -6.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
LV
36% Win Probability 64%
358 Total Yards 396
218 Passing Yards 285
140 Rushing Yards 111
1.4 Sacks 2.7
1.2 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen230 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH James Cook67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DJ Moore5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.5 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins283 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty62 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.0 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Nailor4.3 rec, 62 yds, 0.5 TD

Raiders by 3.9

Raiders are the pick here, favoured by 3.9 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 29-25).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: James Cook, 4.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 58% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 51% win rate, 5.7 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game (Maxx Crosby (3.4 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Raiders' line should hold up: the Bills win just 51% of their reps, mustering 2.8 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game, and Deone Walker (2.2 sacks, 0.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Tre Tucker should find soft spots all day, open 50% of the time for 63 yds a game.
  • DJ Moore is the go-to for the Bills, separating on 41% of routes for 51 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Eric Stokes (Raiders) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 37% of routes, good for 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Ashton Jeanty sets the tempo for the Raiders — 62 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • The Bills' run game leans on James Cook — 14 carries, 67 yds a game (4.8 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLV -3.9
Market lineBUF -6.5
Sim total53
Market total47.5
LV by 3.9 (64% to win) Projected total 53 pts Kirk Cousins ~283 pass yds (250+ 74%) James Cook ~67 rush yds (70+ 38%) Tre Tucker ~85 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 56%)