BUF @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
BUF Bills
24
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF30%24
MIA70%32
32
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take MIA +7.5 +15.6 pts
MARKET BUF -7.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
MIA
30% Win Probability 70%
349 Total Yards 419
227 Passing Yards 242
122 Rushing Yards 177
2.4 Sacks 2.4
0.8 Turnovers 0.5

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen240 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH James Cook61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DJ Moore6.2 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.2 rec, 42 yds, 0.5 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis240 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane126 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC Malik Washington5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert2.9 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Dolphins by 8.1

Across 50 simulations, Dolphins come out on top 70% of the time by an average of 8.1 (32-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: De'Von Achane, 9.3 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Phidarian Mathis (Bills) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Phidarian Mathis, winning 55% of reps for 0.2 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 24.2 pressures a game (Chop Robinson (1.8 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Dolphins' line should hold up: the Bills win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.9 sacks and 28.0 pressures a game, and Greg Rousseau (2.1 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Malik Washington is the go-to for the Dolphins, separating on 42% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 6.6 catches for 66 yds a game on 48% separation.
  • Few balls get past Chris Johnson (Dolphins), who yields separation on 39% of routes with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Dolphins ride De'Von Achane: 14 carries, 126 yds a game (9.3 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Bills hand it to James Cook early and often, 15 carries for 61 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIA -8.1
Market lineBUF -7.5
Sim total56
Market total47.5
MIA by 8.1 (70% to win) Projected total 56 pts Malik Willis ~240 pass yds (250+ 44%) De'Von Achane ~126 rush yds (70+ 78%) DJ Moore ~90 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 70%)