BUF @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
22
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF32%22
MIN68%24
24
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
Lean MIN +3 +5.6 pts
MARKET BUF -3 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
MIN
32% Win Probability 68%
314 Total Yards 341
191 Passing Yards 241
123 Rushing Yards 100
3.0 Sacks 3.0
1.2 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen210 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH James Cook61 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DJ Moore5.0 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid2.8 rec, 35 yds, 0.3 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray256 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones41 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.7 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD

Vikings by 2.6

Across 50 simulations, Vikings come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 2.6 (24-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 46 yds on just 40% open, 0.9 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: C.J. Gardner-Johnson, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Justin Jefferson, open on 60% of routes for 6.0/7.9, 56 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' quarterback should have time; the Vikings win just 49% of reps for 5.7 sacks a game, led by Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bills — a 50% win rate yields only 5.4 sacks and 26.7 pressures a game, led by Greg Rousseau (2.5 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Justin Jefferson to eat: 6.0 catches and 56 yds a game for the Vikings.
  • The Bills will live and die with DJ Moore, who comes open 40% of the time (46 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) travels and erases — only 39% separation allowed, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Vikings' run game leans on Aaron Jones — 13 carries, 41 yds a game (3.2 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side into a stout front.
  • The Bills lean on James Cook, 14 carries for 61 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIN -2.6
Market lineBUF -3
Sim total46
Market total48.5
MIN by 2.6 (68% to win) Projected total 46 pts Kyler Murray ~256 pass yds (250+ 56%) James Cook ~61 rush yds (70+ 26%) Justin Jefferson ~67 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 48%)