BUF @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
BUF Bills
22
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF26%22
NE74%31
31
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
Lean NE -1.5 +8.0 pts
MARKET NE -1.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
NE
26% Win Probability 74%
332 Total Yards 428
185 Passing Yards 262
147 Rushing Yards 167
3.7 Sacks 3.8
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen209 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH James Cook71 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DJ Moore5.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid2.9 rec, 36 yds, 0.3 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye264 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC A.J. Brown5.4 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.7 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Patriots by 9.5

The model leans Patriots by 9.5, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 31-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 50 yds on just 34% open, 1.4 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 6.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • A.J. Brown (Patriots) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: A.J. Brown, open on 62% of routes for 7.2/8.8, 71 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' quarterback should have time; the Patriots win just 51% of reps for 7.1 sacks a game, with Dre'Mont Jones (2.7 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Patriots' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 51% of reps for 6.9 sacks a game, with Greg Rousseau (3.2 sacks, 10.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Patriots to feed A.J. Brown: 7.2 catches for 71 yds a game, open 62% of the time.
  • Look for DJ Moore to eat: 6.2 catches and 50 yds a game for the Bills.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps — and 1.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Patriots hand it to Rhamondre Stevenson early and often, 13 carries for 82 yds a game at 6.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • James Cook is the workhorse for the Bills, churning 71 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -9.5
Market lineNE -1.5
Sim total53
Market total48.5
NE by 9.5 (74% to win) Projected total 53 pts Drake Maye ~264 pass yds (250+ 50%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~82 rush yds (70+ 42%) A.J. Brown ~81 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 56%)