BUF @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
21
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BUF36%21
NYJ64%24
24
NYJ Jets

Projected Team Stats

BUF
NYJ
36% Win Probability 64%
297 Total Yards 347
184 Passing Yards 244
113 Rushing Yards 103
2.9 Sacks 2.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen202 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH James Cook54 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DJ Moore5.2 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Khalil Shakir2.9 rec, 32 yds, 0.2 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Breece Hall61 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Garrett Wilson6.1 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell3.2 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Jets by 3.0

The model leans Jets by 3.0, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 24-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Dylan Parham (Jets) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.5 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Garrett Wilson, open on 66% of routes for 7.8/10.1, 71 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.2 sacks a game, and Kingsley Enagbare (1.7 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Bills may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.9 sacks a game, and Greg Rousseau (1.9 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson should find soft spots all day, open 66% of the time for 71 yds a game.
  • DJ Moore is the go-to for the Bills, separating on 47% of routes for 51 yds a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall sets the tempo for the Jets — 61 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of James Cook: 54 yds a game at 4.3 a carry for the Bills, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 3.0 (64% to win) Projected total 45 pts Geno Smith ~248 pass yds (250+ 46%) Breece Hall ~61 rush yds (70+ 32%) Garrett Wilson ~84 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 56%)