BUF @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 10 slate
BUF Bills
20
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
BUF30%20
NYJ70%29
29
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take NYJ +7 +15.6 pts
MARKET BUF -7 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

BUF
NYJ
30% Win Probability 70%
303 Total Yards 388
185 Passing Yards 236
118 Rushing Yards 153
1.7 Sacks 3.1
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen207 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH James Cook53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.6 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid2.9 rec, 38 yds, 0.4 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith230 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Breece Hall110 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.3.3 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 8.6

The sim sides with Jets: a 8.6-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (29-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Breece Hall, 7.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Dylan Parham (Jets) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 1.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 6.1 sacks a game, and David Bailey (3.2 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Bills may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.6 sacks a game, and Greg Rousseau (1.1 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson should find soft spots all day, open 57% of the time for 60 yds a game.
  • DJ Moore is the go-to for the Bills, separating on 46% of routes for 54 yds a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall is the workhorse for the Jets, churning 110 yds a game at 7.5 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • James Cook carries the load for the Bills, 14 carries for 53 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -8.6
Market lineBUF -7
Sim total49
Market total46.5
NYJ by 8.6 (70% to win) Projected total 49 pts Geno Smith ~230 pass yds (250+ 24%) Breece Hall ~110 rush yds (70+ 72%) DJ Moore ~76 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 58%)