CAR @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
16
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CAR58%16
CLV42%13
13
CLV Browns
BET VALUE
MARKET CAR -1.5 · O/U 39.5

Projected Team Stats

CAR
CLV
58% Win Probability 42%
280 Total Yards 248
195 Passing Yards 154
86 Rushing Yards 94
2.8 Sacks 2.2
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young209 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson174 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.4 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.2 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD

Panthers by 2.8

Across 50 simulations, Panthers come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.8 (16-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Mike Jackson (Panthers) - winner: Mike Jackson, holding him to 22 yds on just 35% open, 0.7 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.5 sacks and 23.5 pressures a game, and Jaelan Phillips (3.5 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Browns win just 50% of reps for 4.3 sacks a game, led by Jared Verse (1.7 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Tetairoa McMillan to eat: 5.1 catches and 48 yds a game for the Panthers.
  • Jerry Jeudy is the engine of the Browns' passing game — 22 yds a game on 35% separation.
  • In coverage, Mike Jackson (Panthers) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed with 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Panthers' run game leans on Chuba Hubbard — 12 carries, 41 yds a game (3.4 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 14 carries, 58 yds a game (4.1 a carry), finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCAR -2.8
Market lineCAR -1.5
Sim total29
Market total39.5
CAR by 2.8 (58% to win) Projected total 29 pts Bryce Young ~209 pass yds (250+ 24%) Quinshon Judkins ~58 rush yds (70+ 26%) Tetairoa McMillan ~68 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 44%)