CAR @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
13
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CAR30%13
GB70%20
20
GB Packers
BET VALUE
MARKET GB -7 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

CAR
GB
30% Win Probability 70%
292 Total Yards 303
196 Passing Yards 210
95 Rushing Yards 93
2.0 Sacks 2.9
1.5 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young217 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.2 rec, 49 yds, 0.1 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love214 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs58 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson4.6 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.6 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 6.3

The model leans Packers by 6.3, winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 20-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Packers win just 51% of reps for 5.4 sacks a game, Micah Parsons (3.8 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.8 sacks a game (Jaelan Phillips (2.6 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Packers will live and die with Christian Watson, who comes open 47% of the time (52 yds a game).
  • The Panthers will live and die with Tetairoa McMillan, who comes open 50% of the time (42 yds a game).
  • Xavier McKinney (Packers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 36% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Josh Jacobs is the workhorse for the Packers, churning 58 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Panthers ride Chuba Hubbard: 14 carries, 47 yds a game (3.4 a carry), with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -6.3
Market lineGB -7
Sim total33
Market total45.5
GB by 6.3 (70% to win) Projected total 33 pts Bryce Young ~217 pass yds (250+ 30%) Josh Jacobs ~58 rush yds (70+ 26%) Tetairoa McMillan ~71 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 46%)