CAR @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 13 slate
CAR Panthers
16
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CAR50%16
MIN50%15
15
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
MARKET MIN -3.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

CAR
MIN
50% Win Probability 50%
289 Total Yards 257
205 Passing Yards 167
83 Rushing Yards 91
3.3 Sacks 2.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young218 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard42 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.5 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray190 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.1 rec, 60 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jauan Jennings3.7 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD

Panthers by 1.2

Run it 50 times and Panthers win 50% of them, by 1.2 on average (16-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tavierre Thomas (Vikings) - winner: Tavierre Thomas, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.4 sacks and 24.8 pressures a game, and Jaelan Phillips (3.4 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Vikings win just 48% of reps for 4.7 sacks a game, led by Dallas Turner (3.1 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the engine of the Panthers' passing game — 58 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • Look for Justin Jefferson to eat: 5.7 catches and 43 yds a game for the Vikings.
  • Devin Lloyd (Panthers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Panthers lean on Chuba Hubbard, 13 carries for 42 yds a game at 3.1 a carry.
  • Aaron Jones is the workhorse for the Vikings, churning 43 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCAR -1.2
Market lineMIN -3.5
Sim total31
Market total42.5
CAR by 1.2 (50% to win) Projected total 31 pts Bryce Young ~218 pass yds (250+ 28%) Tetairoa McMillan ~81 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 52%)