CAR @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 10 slate
CAR Panthers
18
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CAR34%18
NO66%21
21
NO Saints
BET VALUE
MARKET NO -1.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

CAR
NO
34% Win Probability 66%
319 Total Yards 341
213 Passing Yards 255
105 Rushing Yards 86
1.8 Sacks 2.1
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young225 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.7 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.6 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough259 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave7.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson5.0 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD

Saints by 3.5

Across 50 simulations, Saints come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 3.5 (21-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Saints win just 49% of reps for 5.0 sacks a game, led by Chase Young (3.3 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game).
  • The Saints' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.7 sacks and 15.0 pressures a game (Jaelan Phillips (3.0 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 68 yds a game on 43% separation.
  • Tetairoa McMillan should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 51 yds a game.
  • Mike Jackson (Panthers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 36% of his coverage snaps with 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Saints ride Travis Etienne Jr.: 11 carries, 48 yds a game (4.5 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Chuba Hubbard is the workhorse for the Panthers, churning 55 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -3.5
Market lineNO -1.5
Sim total39
Market total43.5
NO by 3.5 (66% to win) Projected total 39 pts Tyler Shough ~259 pass yds (250+ 52%) Chuba Hubbard ~55 rush yds (70+ 28%) Chris Olave ~89 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 64%)