CAR @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
CAR Panthers
12
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CAR22%12
PHI78%23
23
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
MARKET PHI -6.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

CAR
PHI
22% Win Probability 78%
260 Total Yards 337
176 Passing Yards 193
84 Rushing Yards 144
3.0 Sacks 2.5
1.5 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young195 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard40 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.1 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.5 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts193 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.2 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD

Eagles by 10.8

Run it 50 times and Eagles win 78% of them, by 10.8 on average (23-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jihaad Campbell, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Robert Rochell (Panthers) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 65% of routes for 6.8/8.2, 52 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.1 sacks a game, and Jonathan Greenard (2.3 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Eagles' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 49% of reps for 5.5 sacks a game, with Jaelan Phillips (3.1 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Look for DeVonta Smith to eat: 6.8 catches and 52 yds a game for the Eagles.
  • Look for Tetairoa McMillan to eat: 5.0 catches and 31 yds a game for the Panthers.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Zack Baun (Eagles): 34% separation allowed — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley is the workhorse for the Eagles, churning 63 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Panthers' run game leans on Chuba Hubbard — 14 carries, 40 yds a game (3.0 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -10.8
Market linePHI -6.5
Sim total36
Market total43.5
PHI by 10.8 (78% to win) Projected total 36 pts Bryce Young ~195 pass yds (250+ 18%) Saquon Barkley ~63 rush yds (70+ 36%) DeVonta Smith ~59 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 38%)