CAR @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
CAR Panthers
12
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CAR24%12
PIT76%22
22
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
Lean PIT -3.5 +6.2 pts
MARKET PIT -3.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

CAR
PIT
24% Win Probability 76%
247 Total Yards 343
174 Passing Yards 244
73 Rushing Yards 99
1.4 Sacks 2.4
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young190 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard33 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.0 rec, 63 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.3 rec, 37 yds, 0.1 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers233 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.6 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Germie Bernard5.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 9.7

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 76% of them, by 9.7 on average (22-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Mike Jackson (Panthers) - winner: Mike Jackson, holding him to 40 yds on just 38% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Jaelan Phillips (Panthers) vs Troy Fautanu (Steelers) - winner: Jaelan Phillips, winning 55% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 5.0 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.7 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Steelers win just 50% of reps for 4.9 sacks a game, with T.J. Watt (1.6 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.1 sacks a game (Jaelan Phillips (2.7 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is D.K. Metcalf's show for the Steelers: 40 yds a game, open on 38% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Tetairoa McMillan's show for the Panthers: 34 yds a game, open on 47% of routes.
  • In coverage, Mike Jackson (Panthers) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed, good for 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 13 carries for 61 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, churning off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • On the ground, the Panthers ride Chuba Hubbard: 12 carries, 33 yds a game (2.7 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -9.7
Market linePIT -3.5
Sim total33
Market total41.5
PIT by 9.7 (76% to win) Projected total 33 pts Aaron Rodgers ~233 pass yds (250+ 34%) Jaylen Warren ~61 rush yds (70+ 34%) D.K. Metcalf ~67 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 40%)