CAR @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
CAR Panthers
19
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CAR50%19
TB50%17
17
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
MARKET TB -3.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

CAR
TB
50% Win Probability 50%
319 Total Yards 285
213 Passing Yards 188
106 Rushing Yards 97
2.1 Sacks 2.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young225 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.6 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.8 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield199 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving42 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka2.8 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD

Panthers by 1.4

Across 50 simulations, Panthers come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 1.4 (19-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Robert Rochell (Panthers) - winner: Robert Rochell, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 4.4 sacks a game, and Jaelan Phillips (2.5 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.0 sacks a game), led by Elijah Roberts (1.3 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan headlines the Panthers' receiving corps — 5.5 catches for 53 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • Chris Godwin should find soft spots all day, open 56% of the time for 38 yds a game.
  • Mike Jackson (Panthers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 34% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chuba Hubbard sets the tempo for the Panthers — 53 yds a game on the ground at 3.8 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Buccaneers ride Bucky Irving: 13 carries, 42 yds a game (3.2 a carry), churning to the right side against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCAR -1.4
Market lineTB -3.5
Sim total36
Market total44.5
CAR by 1.4 (50% to win) Projected total 36 pts Bryce Young ~225 pass yds (250+ 30%) Chuba Hubbard ~53 rush yds (70+ 20%) Tetairoa McMillan ~77 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 50%)