CHI @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
CHI Bears
19
PROJECTION
CHI 31 – ATL 23
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CHI26%19 31
ATL74%27 23
27
ATL Falcons
✗ RESULT CHI by 8 model ATL by 7.6, off by 15.6
✗ BEST BET ATL +3.5 LOSS line at publish CHI -3.5
✗ TOTAL 54 pts OVER O/U 49, model 46 lean under

Projected Team Stats

CHI
ATL
26% Win Probability 74%
350 Total Yards 389
223 Passing Yards 223
127 Rushing Yards 166
1.3 Sacks 2.9
1.7 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams243 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.4 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Luther Burden III4.0 rec, 54 yds, 0.1 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.212 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson114 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Drake London7.1 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.9 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD

Falcons by 7.6

The sim sides with Falcons: a 7.6-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (27-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 9.8/12.1, 81 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears' quarterback should have time; the Falcons win just 50% of reps for 5.7 sacks a game, Samson Ebukam (1.6 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bears — a 49% win rate, 3.1 sacks and 11.8 pressures a game — Montez Sweat (0.8 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Drake London headlines the Falcons' receiving corps — 9.8 catches for 81 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • The Bears' aerial attack runs through Rome Odunze (60 yds a game, open on 56% of routes).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Devin Bush (Bears): 43% separation allowed — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons' run game leans on Bijan Robinson — 17 carries, 114 yds a game (6.7 a carry), finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • D'Andre Swift carries the load for the Bears, 13 carries for 56 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -7.6
Market lineCHI -3.5
Sim total46
Market total49
ATL by 7.6 (74% to win) Projected total 46 pts Caleb Williams ~243 pass yds (250+ 50%) Bijan Robinson ~114 rush yds (70+ 88%) Drake London ~88 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 70%)