CHI @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
CHI Bears
23
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CHI46%23
ATL54%25
25
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -3 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

CHI
ATL
46% Win Probability 54%
339 Total Yards 365
233 Passing Yards 212
106 Rushing Yards 153
2.4 Sacks 2.6
1.6 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams244 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Colston Loveland2.9 rec, 40 yds, 0.5 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.219 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson99 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Drake London5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.9 rec, 45 yds, 0.4 TD

Falcons by 1.7

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 54% of them, by 1.7 on average (25-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Kyler Gordon (Bears) - winner: Kyler Gordon, holding him to 19 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Drake London, open on 60% of routes for 7.9/10.5, 62 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears' line should hold up: the Falcons win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.6 sacks and 27.7 pressures a game (Jalon Walker (3.3 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.9 sacks a game), Montez Sweat (1.5 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Falcons to feed Drake London: 7.9 catches for 62 yds a game, open 60% of the time.
  • Through the air it is Rome Odunze's show for the Bears: 58 yds a game, open on 49% of routes.
  • Clark Phillips III (Falcons) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 41% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson, 17 carries for 99 yds a game at 5.9 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 48 yds a game at 3.7 a carry for the Bears, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -1.7
Market lineCHI -3
Sim total48
Market total47.5
ATL by 1.7 (54% to win) Projected total 48 pts Caleb Williams ~244 pass yds (250+ 46%) Bijan Robinson ~99 rush yds (70+ 80%) Rome Odunze ~82 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 60%)