CHI @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
CHI Bears
24
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CHI54%24
BUF46%23
23
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
MARKET BUF -3.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

CHI
BUF
54% Win Probability 46%
369 Total Yards 372
249 Passing Yards 208
121 Rushing Yards 164
3.0 Sacks 3.4
1.0 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams262 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift51 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.4 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen222 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook76 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore6.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD

Bears by 1.3

Run it 50 times and Bears win 54% of them, by 1.3 on average (24-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • James Cook (Bills) vs D'Marco Jackson (Bears) - winner: James Cook, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bears — a 50% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 31.7 pressures a game, with Montez Sweat (2.4 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Bears' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 50% of reps for 6.1 sacks a game, Greg Rousseau (2.9 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Rome Odunze should find soft spots all day, open 53% of the time for 56 yds a game.
  • Expect the Bills to feed DJ Moore: 8.2 catches for 62 yds a game, open 42% of the time.
  • Jaylon Johnson (Bears) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 41% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 51 yds a game at 4.0 a carry for the Bears, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Bills ride James Cook: 16 carries, 76 yds a game (4.8 a carry), churning to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -1.3
Market lineBUF -3.5
Sim total47
Market total51.5
CHI by 1.3 (54% to win) Projected total 47 pts Caleb Williams ~262 pass yds (250+ 48%) James Cook ~76 rush yds (70+ 56%) Rome Odunze ~80 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 56%)