CHI @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CHI Bears
17
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CHI24%17
DET76%25
25
DET Lions
BET VALUE
Lean DET -2.5 +5.6 pts
MARKET DET -2.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

CHI
DET
24% Win Probability 76%
307 Total Yards 394
209 Passing Yards 256
98 Rushing Yards 138
1.6 Sacks 3.6
1.4 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams233 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift45 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.0 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff255 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs92 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.7 rec, 74 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.4 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD

Lions by 8.1

Across 50 simulations, Lions come out on top 76% of the time by an average of 8.1 (25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Gervon Dexter Sr. (Bears) vs Christian Mahogany (Lions) - winner: Gervon Dexter Sr., winning 56% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Tyrique Stevenson (Bears) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 63% of routes for 9.5/11.4, 69 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Lions — a 50% win rate, 7.1 sacks and 31.0 pressures a game — Aidan Hutchinson (4.4 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bears — a 51% win rate yields only 3.7 sacks and 7.1 pressures a game, with Gervon Dexter Sr. (2.9 sacks, 0.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Look for Amon-Ra St. Brown to eat: 9.5 catches and 69 yds a game for the Lions.
  • Rome Odunze is the engine of the Bears' passing game — 50 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • Devin Bush (Bears) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 44% of his coverage snaps — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Lions ride Jahmyr Gibbs: 16 carries, 92 yds a game (5.9 a carry), churning off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • On the ground, the Bears ride D'Andre Swift: 13 carries, 45 yds a game (3.6 a carry), with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -8.1
Market lineDET -2.5
Sim total43
Market total51.5
DET by 8.1 (76% to win) Projected total 43 pts Jared Goff ~255 pass yds (250+ 48%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~92 rush yds (70+ 64%) Rome Odunze ~77 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 50%)