CHI @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CHI Bears
20
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CHI32%20
GB68%24
24
GB Packers
BET VALUE
MARKET GB -3 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

CHI
GB
32% Win Probability 68%
341 Total Yards 350
215 Passing Yards 243
126 Rushing Yards 107
2.2 Sacks 3.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams238 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.5 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Colston Loveland2.7 rec, 34 yds, 0.2 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love245 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Christian Watson5.3 rec, 79 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jayden Reed4.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 4.1

Packers are the pick here, favoured by 4.1 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 58% of routes for 8.0/9.6, 71 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 51% win rate, 7.7 sacks and 34.4 pressures a game, and Micah Parsons (5.0 sacks, 10.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (4.0 sacks a game), with Montez Sweat (1.1 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Packers' aerial attack runs through Christian Watson (71 yds a game, open on 58% of routes).
  • Look for Rome Odunze to eat: 5.9 catches and 50 yds a game for the Bears.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Xavier McKinney (Packers): 42% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Josh Jacobs sets the tempo for the Packers — 63 yds a game on the ground at 3.8 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • The Bears hand it to D'Andre Swift early and often, 15 carries for 62 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -4.1
Market lineGB -3
Sim total44
Market total49.5
GB by 4.1 (68% to win) Projected total 44 pts Jordan Love ~245 pass yds (250+ 44%) Josh Jacobs ~63 rush yds (70+ 40%) Rome Odunze ~82 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 58%)