CHI @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
CHI Bears
23
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CHI78%23
MIA22%14
14
MIA Dolphins

Projected Team Stats

CHI
MIA
78% Win Probability 22%
378 Total Yards 276
212 Passing Yards 168
166 Rushing Yards 108
3.2 Sacks 2.9
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams220 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift72 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze4.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III4.2 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis192 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II54 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.3 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Washington3.8 rec, 43 yds

Bears by 9.3

Run it 50 times and Bears win 78% of them, by 9.3 on average (23-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Clark Phillips III, holding him to 24 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: D'Andre Swift, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Neville Gallimore (Bears) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Neville Gallimore, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bears — a 51% win rate, 5.8 sacks and 31.7 pressures a game — Montez Sweat (2.0 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Bears' quarterback should have time; the Dolphins win just 49% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, led by Joshua Uche (3.3 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Rome Odunze is the engine of the Bears' passing game — 47 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Caleb Douglas headlines the Dolphins' receiving corps — 3.6 catches for 29 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • In coverage, Clark Phillips III (Bears) travels and erases — only 36% separation allowed with 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 72 yds a game at 5.1 a carry for the Bears, churning to the right side.
  • The Dolphins lean on Ollie Gordon II, 13 carries for 54 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

CHI by 9.3 (78% to win) Projected total 36 pts Caleb Williams ~220 pass yds (250+ 24%) D'Andre Swift ~72 rush yds (70+ 46%) Rome Odunze ~68 rec yds, 4.3 rec (70+ 44%)