CHI @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 14 slate
CHI Bears
21
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CHI54%21
MIA46%21
21
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
Lean MIA +5.5 +5.8 pts
MARKET CHI -5.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

CHI
MIA
54% Win Probability 46%
335 Total Yards 327
221 Passing Yards 180
114 Rushing Yards 147
3.5 Sacks 2.8
1.0 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams234 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze4.6 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Colston Loveland3.0 rec, 41 yds, 0.3 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis197 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane91 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Malik Washington4.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert2.9 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD

Dolphins by 0.3

Dolphins are the pick here, favoured by 0.3 and winning 46% of 50 sims (projected 21-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Jaylon Johnson, holding him to 32 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Neville Gallimore (Bears) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Neville Gallimore, winning 58% of reps for 0.7 sacks and 6.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.5 sacks and 23.4 pressures a game, and Joshua Uche (2.8 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bears — a 52% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 32.3 pressures a game, led by Montez Sweat (2.5 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Malik Washington to eat: 4.6 catches and 32 yds a game for the Dolphins.
  • Look for Rome Odunze to eat: 5.1 catches and 47 yds a game for the Bears.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Jaylon Johnson (Bears): 37% separation allowed — and 0.8 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Dolphins lean on De'Von Achane, 15 carries for 91 yds a game at 6.1 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 53 yds a game at 4.2 a carry for the Bears, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIA -0.3
Market lineCHI -5.5
Sim total42
Market total46.5
MIA by 0.3 (46% to win) Projected total 42 pts Caleb Williams ~234 pass yds (250+ 38%) De'Von Achane ~91 rush yds (70+ 68%) Rome Odunze ~73 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 46%)