CHI @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CHI Bears
20
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CHI44%20
MIN56%21
21
MIN Vikings

Projected Team Stats

CHI
MIN
44% Win Probability 56%
337 Total Yards 297
212 Passing Yards 197
125 Rushing Yards 100
2.7 Sacks 2.8
1.2 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams225 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift55 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 73 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.6 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray215 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones54 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.1 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC T.J. Hockenson4.1 rec, 42 yds, 0.4 TD

Vikings by 0.9

Across 50 simulations, Vikings come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 0.9 (21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 41 yds on just 37% open, 1.2 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 49% of their reps, mustering 6.3 sacks and 28.4 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (3.1 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bears — a 49% win rate yields only 5.3 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game, led by Montez Sweat (1.8 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Vikings' aerial attack runs through Justin Jefferson (51 yds a game, open on 55% of routes).
  • The Bears' aerial attack runs through Rome Odunze (41 yds a game, open on 37% of routes).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings): 31% separation allowed with 1.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Aaron Jones sets the tempo for the Vikings — 54 yds a game on the ground at 3.8 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • The Bears hand it to D'Andre Swift early and often, 13 carries for 55 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

MIN by 0.9 (56% to win) Projected total 41 pts Caleb Williams ~225 pass yds (250+ 28%) D'Andre Swift ~55 rush yds (70+ 26%) Rome Odunze ~73 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 52%)