CHI @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
CHI Bears
21
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CHI58%21
MIN42%17
17
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
Lean CHI +1.5 +5.7 pts
MARKET MIN -1.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

CHI
MIN
58% Win Probability 42%
324 Total Yards 289
212 Passing Yards 180
112 Rushing Yards 109
3.2 Sacks 3.0
1.2 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams224 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift50 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.7 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.3 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray202 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones52 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.8 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.6 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 4.2

Bears are the pick here, favoured by 4.2 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 21-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (6.0 sacks a game), led by Montez Sweat (2.3 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game).
  • The Bears' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 49% of their reps, mustering 6.2 sacks and 27.3 pressures a game, and Dallas Turner (3.3 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Bears will live and die with Rome Odunze, who comes open 44% of the time (50 yds a game).
  • The Vikings will live and die with Justin Jefferson, who comes open 53% of the time (45 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Devin Bush (Bears): 32% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 50 yds a game at 4.0 a carry for the Bears, churning to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Vikings ride Aaron Jones: 13 carries, 52 yds a game (4.1 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -4.2
Market lineMIN -1.5
Sim total39
Market total43.5
CHI by 4.2 (58% to win) Projected total 39 pts Caleb Williams ~224 pass yds (250+ 38%) Aaron Jones ~52 rush yds (70+ 20%) Rome Odunze ~84 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 54%)