CHI @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 8 slate
CHI Bears
17
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CHI30%17
SEA70%23
23
SEA Seahawks

Projected Team Stats

CHI
SEA
30% Win Probability 70%
317 Total Yards 346
189 Passing Yards 223
128 Rushing Yards 123
2.4 Sacks 3.1
1.8 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams206 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift57 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.8 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold227 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.2 rec, 97 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.8 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD

Seahawks by 6.2

Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 6.2 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 43 yds on just 39% open, 1.1 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 10.0/11.9, 86 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 49% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 27.8 pressures a game, DeMarcus Lawrence (2.3 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the Bears win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.1 sacks and 25.1 pressures a game (Montez Sweat (1.7 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks will live and die with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who comes open 63% of the time (86 yds a game).
  • The Bears lean on Rome Odunze, good for 5.2 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 39% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks): 35% separation allowed, adding 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks lean on Emanuel Wilson, 15 carries for 57 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 57 yds a game at 4.2 a carry for the Bears, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

SEA by 6.2 (70% to win) Projected total 40 pts Sam Darnold ~227 pass yds (250+ 36%) Emanuel Wilson ~57 rush yds (70+ 26%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~97 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 74%)