CHI @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
CHI Bears
19
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CHI28%19
SEA72%27
27
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -4.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

CHI
SEA
28% Win Probability 72%
322 Total Yards 377
210 Passing Yards 227
112 Rushing Yards 151
1.7 Sacks 3.1
1.5 Turnovers 1.8

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams228 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Colston Loveland3.0 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold221 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet84 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.9 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD

Seahawks by 8.2

Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 72% of them, by 8.2 on average (27-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 41 yds on just 38% open, 1.2 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Gervon Dexter Sr. (Bears) vs Grey Zabel (Seahawks) - winner: Gervon Dexter Sr., winning 56% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 1.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 8.1/9.1, 59 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Seahawks — a 49% win rate, 5.7 sacks and 29.4 pressures a game — Uchenna Nwosu (1.5 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bears — a 51% win rate yields only 3.8 sacks and 16.0 pressures a game, Montez Sweat (1.0 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba should find soft spots all day, open 63% of the time for 59 yds a game.
  • The Bears' aerial attack runs through Rome Odunze (41 yds a game, open on 38% of routes).
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 31% of routes — and 1.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks' run game leans on Zach Charbonnet — 18 carries, 84 yds a game (4.6 a carry), with his best work to the right side.
  • D'Andre Swift carries the load for the Bears, 14 carries for 53 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -8.2
Market lineSEA -4.5
Sim total46
Market total47.5
SEA by 8.2 (72% to win) Projected total 46 pts Caleb Williams ~228 pass yds (250+ 44%) Zach Charbonnet ~84 rush yds (70+ 66%) Rome Odunze ~71 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 52%)