CIN @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
CIN Bengals
25
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN52%25
ATL48%24
24
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -4.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
ATL
52% Win Probability 48%
355 Total Yards 376
306 Passing Yards 227
49 Rushing Yards 149
1.9 Sacks 2.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow315 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chase Brown34 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase8.0 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.9 rec, 63 yds, 0.4 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.229 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson102 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London6.1 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.9 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 0.1

Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 0.1 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 25-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.1 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Dax Hill (Bengals) - winner: Dax Hill, holding him to 19 yds on just 36% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Ryan Neuzil (Falcons) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.0 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Xavier Watts, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 62% of routes for 9.8/12.9, 81 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons' quarterback should have time; the Bengals win just 50% of reps for 4.5 sacks a game, Myles Murphy (1.4 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Falcons win just 49% of reps for 4.9 sacks a game, led by Jalon Walker (3.4 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Bengals lean on Ja'Marr Chase, good for 9.8 catches and 81 yds a game while breaking open on 62% of his routes.
  • Drake London headlines the Falcons' receiving corps — 8.3 catches for 63 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • On the back end, Divine Deablo (Falcons) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 36% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown sets the tempo for the Bengals — 34 yds a game on the ground at 3.2 a carry into a stout front.
  • Bijan Robinson carries the load for the Falcons, 17 carries for 102 yds a game at 6.1 a carry, churning to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -0.1
Market lineCIN -4.5
Sim total49
Market total48.5
CIN by 0.1 (52% to win) Projected total 49 pts Joe Burrow ~315 pass yds (250+ 90%) Bijan Robinson ~102 rush yds (70+ 74%) Ja'Marr Chase ~97 rec yds, 8.0 rec (70+ 76%)