CIN @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 7 slate
CIN Bengals
21
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN62%21
BLT38%19
19
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
Lean CIN +3.5 +5.5 pts
MARKET BLT -3.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
BLT
62% Win Probability 38%
320 Total Yards 339
274 Passing Yards 184
46 Rushing Yards 155
2.9 Sacks 2.5
1.1 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow289 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Chase Brown30 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.0 rec, 84 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.7 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson200 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry91 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.8 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD

Bengals by 2.0

Run it 50 times and Bengals win 62% of them, by 2.0 on average (21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 56% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs Dax Hill (Bengals) - winner: Dax Hill, holding him to 17 yds on just 36% open, 0.3 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens' quarterback should have time; the Bengals win just 51% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, with Myles Murphy (2.2 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Bengals' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 18.0 pressures a game, and Trey Hendrickson (2.5 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the engine of the Bengals' passing game — 77 yds a game on 57% separation.
  • Zay Flowers is the engine of the Ravens' passing game — 52 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Bryan Cook (Bengals) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 29% of routes — and 0.3 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals' run game leans on Chase Brown — 9 carries, 30 yds a game (3.2 a carry) into a stout front.
  • The Ravens lean on Derrick Henry, 17 carries for 91 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -2.0
Market lineBLT -3.5
Sim total40
Market total52.5
CIN by 2.0 (62% to win) Projected total 40 pts Joe Burrow ~289 pass yds (250+ 74%) Derrick Henry ~91 rush yds (70+ 64%) Ja'Marr Chase ~84 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 66%)