CIN @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
CIN Bengals
24
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN82%24
CAR18%15
15
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
Lean CIN -2.5 +6.8 pts
MARKET CIN -2.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
CAR
82% Win Probability 18%
359 Total Yards 315
290 Passing Yards 217
69 Rushing Yards 99
2.6 Sacks 2.6
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow285 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Chase Brown42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.8 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young232 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.1 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 9.3

The sim sides with Bengals: a 9.3-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (24-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Luke Fortner (Panthers) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), with Myles Murphy (1.6 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Panthers — a 50% win rate, 5.2 sacks and 22.2 pressures a game (Jaelan Phillips (3.9 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the engine of the Bengals' passing game — 65 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • Tetairoa McMillan headlines the Panthers' receiving corps — 6.9 catches for 56 yds a game on 45% separation.
  • Bryan Cook (Bengals) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 29% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown is the workhorse for the Bengals, churning 42 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • The Panthers' run game leans on Chuba Hubbard — 15 carries, 49 yds a game (3.3 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -9.3
Market lineCIN -2.5
Sim total40
Market total47.5
CIN by 9.3 (82% to win) Projected total 40 pts Joe Burrow ~285 pass yds (250+ 70%) Chuba Hubbard ~49 rush yds (70+ 14%) Ja'Marr Chase ~84 rec yds, 7.3 rec (70+ 66%)