CIN @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
CIN Bengals
24
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN90%24
CLV10%13
13
CLV Browns
BET VALUE
Lean CIN -4.5 +7.3 pts
MARKET CIN -4.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
CLV
90% Win Probability 10%
344 Total Yards 254
282 Passing Yards 163
62 Rushing Yards 91
3.6 Sacks 2.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow276 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Chase Brown38 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.6 rec, 93 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.4 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson188 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.8 rec, 49 yds
REC Jerry Jeudy4.0 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD

Bengals by 11.8

The model leans Bengals by 11.8, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 24-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 24 yds on just 35% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 65% of routes for 9.2/11.6, 77 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 51% win rate yields only 5.8 sacks and 26.6 pressures a game, with Myles Murphy (2.2 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Browns — a 50% win rate, 4.5 sacks and 19.9 pressures a game (Jared Verse (1.4 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase should find soft spots all day, open 65% of the time for 77 yds a game.
  • Jerry Jeudy headlines the Browns' receiving corps — 3.5 catches for 24 yds a game on 35% separation.
  • On the back end, DJ Turner II (Bengals) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 32% of routes — and 0.8 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown is the workhorse for the Bengals, churning 38 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Browns ride Quinshon Judkins: 15 carries, 55 yds a game (3.8 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -11.8
Market lineCIN -4.5
Sim total37
Market total45.5
CIN by 11.8 (90% to win) Projected total 37 pts Joe Burrow ~276 pass yds (250+ 66%) Quinshon Judkins ~55 rush yds (70+ 24%) Ja'Marr Chase ~93 rec yds, 7.6 rec (70+ 72%)