CIN @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CIN Bengals
26
PROJECTION
CIN 20 – HST 6
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CIN54%26 20
HST46%23 6
23
HST Texans
✓ RESULT CIN by 14 model CIN by 2.4, off by 11.6
✓ SPREAD CIN +3 WIN line at publish HST -3
✗ TOTAL 26 pts UNDER O/U 46.5, model 49 lean over

Projected Team Stats

CIN
HST
54% Win Probability 46%
355 Total Yards 375
309 Passing Yards 265
47 Rushing Yards 109
2.4 Sacks 2.7
1.2 Turnovers 1.9

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow317 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chase Brown29 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.9 rec, 95 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.6 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud275 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH David Montgomery60 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Nico Collins6.4 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Hutchinson3.8 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD

Bengals by 2.4

Run it 50 times and Bengals win 54% of them, by 2.4 on average (26-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Orlando Brown Jr. (Bengals) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 4.0 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Evan Brown (Texans) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bengals — a 51% win rate, 4.9 sacks and 24.8 pressures a game — Myles Murphy (1.6 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 51% win rate yields only 5.5 sacks and 23.5 pressures a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (4.0 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Bengals will live and die with Ja'Marr Chase, who comes open 54% of the time (73 yds a game).
  • Nico Collins is the go-to for the Texans, separating on 52% of routes for 67 yds a game.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 35% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Bengals ride Chase Brown: 11 carries, 29 yds a game (2.6 a carry) against a stingy front.
  • The Texans lean on David Montgomery, 15 carries for 60 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -2.4
Market lineHST -3
Sim total49
Market total46.5
CIN by 2.4 (54% to win) Projected total 49 pts Joe Burrow ~317 pass yds (250+ 88%) David Montgomery ~60 rush yds (70+ 22%) Ja'Marr Chase ~95 rec yds, 7.9 rec (70+ 72%)