CIN @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 2 slate
CIN Bengals
22
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN44%22
HST56%25
25
HST Texans
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -2.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
HST
44% Win Probability 56%
326 Total Yards 389
282 Passing Yards 271
44 Rushing Yards 118
2.6 Sacks 3.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow303 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Chase Brown28 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.9 rec, 91 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.4 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud279 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH David Montgomery66 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins6.7 rec, 91 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Dalton Schultz4.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.5 TD

Texans by 2.3

Run it 50 times and Texans win 56% of them, by 2.3 on average (25-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Orlando Brown Jr. (Bengals) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 56% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 11.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Danielle Hunter (Texans) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Danielle Hunter, winning 55% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 11.2 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Texans win just 51% of reps for 6.9 sacks a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (4.3 sacks, 11.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 51% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 28.1 pressures a game, Myles Murphy (1.5 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Nico Collins should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 72 yds a game.
  • The Bengals lean on Ja'Marr Chase, good for 9.5 catches and 71 yds a game while breaking open on 52% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Jalen Pitre (Texans), who yields separation on 27% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Texans ride David Montgomery: 15 carries, 66 yds a game (4.3 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.
  • Chase Brown is the workhorse for the Bengals, churning 28 yds a game at 2.8 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -2.3
Market lineHST -2.5
Sim total47
Market total46.5
HST by 2.3 (56% to win) Projected total 47 pts Joe Burrow ~303 pass yds (250+ 78%) David Montgomery ~66 rush yds (70+ 40%) Nico Collins ~91 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 78%)