CIN @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CIN Bengals
22
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN58%22
IND42%22
22
IND Colts
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -1.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
IND
58% Win Probability 42%
349 Total Yards 384
286 Passing Yards 247
63 Rushing Yards 137
2.2 Sacks 2.7
1.1 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow303 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Chase Brown42 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones258 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor91 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.5 rec, 57 yds, 0.5 TD

Bengals by 0.4

The model leans Bengals by 0.4, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 22-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.7 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' line should hold up: the Bengals win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 17.5 pressures a game — Myles Murphy (1.3 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Colts win just 50% of reps for 5.5 sacks a game, Laiatu Latu (3.8 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Bengals lean on Ja'Marr Chase, good for 8.8 catches and 69 yds a game while breaking open on 53% of his routes.
  • Alec Pierce is the go-to for the Colts, separating on 48% of routes for 63 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Bryan Cook (Bengals), who yields separation on 37% of routes, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown carries the load for the Bengals, 11 carries for 42 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Colts ride Jonathan Taylor: 16 carries, 91 yds a game (5.7 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -0.4
Market lineCIN -1.5
Sim total45
Market total52.5
CIN by 0.4 (58% to win) Projected total 45 pts Joe Burrow ~303 pass yds (250+ 80%) Jonathan Taylor ~91 rush yds (70+ 74%) Ja'Marr Chase ~85 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 70%)