CIN @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CIN Bengals
30
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN76%30
MIA24%22
22
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -5.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
MIA
76% Win Probability 24%
410 Total Yards 361
345 Passing Yards 212
65 Rushing Yards 149
3.3 Sacks 1.8
1.0 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow338 pass yds, 2.7 TD
RUSH Chase Brown40 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase8.1 rec, 106 yds, 1.0 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.4 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis235 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane108 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Malik Washington4.9 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Greg Dulcich3.6 rec, 38 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 7.8

Across 50 simulations, Bengals come out on top 76% of the time by an average of 7.8 (30-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: De'Von Achane, 7.5 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 33 yds on just 34% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Joshua Uche (Dolphins) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Joshua Uche, winning 56% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Storm Duck (Dolphins) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 61% of routes for 9.9/12.6, 93 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins) vs Dax Hill (Bengals) - winner: Dax Hill, holding him to 20 yds on just 36% open, 0.2 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 51% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 35.2 pressures a game, with Myles Murphy (2.2 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Dolphins may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 4.1 sacks a game (Joshua Uche (2.2 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase should find soft spots all day, open 61% of the time for 93 yds a game.
  • Malik Washington headlines the Dolphins' receiving corps — 4.4 catches for 33 yds a game on 34% separation.
  • DJ Turner II (Bengals) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps — and 1.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown is the workhorse for the Bengals, churning 40 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • De'Von Achane carries the load for the Dolphins, 14 carries for 108 yds a game at 7.5 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -7.8
Market lineCIN -5.5
Sim total52
Market total49.5
CIN by 7.8 (76% to win) Projected total 52 pts Joe Burrow ~338 pass yds (250+ 92%) De'Von Achane ~108 rush yds (70+ 74%) Ja'Marr Chase ~106 rec yds, 8.1 rec (70+ 76%)