CIN @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 5 slate
CIN Bengals
28
PROJECTION
CIN 31 – MIA 24
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CIN84%28 31
MIA16%16 24
16
MIA Dolphins
✓ RESULT CIN by 7 model CIN by 12.0, off by 5.0
✗ SPREAD CIN -7.5 LOSS line at publish CIN -7.5
✓ TOTAL 55 pts OVER O/U 42.5, model 45 lean over

Projected Team Stats

CIN
MIA
84% Win Probability 16%
390 Total Yards 304
320 Passing Yards 202
70 Rushing Yards 102
3.2 Sacks 1.8
0.9 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow305 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH Chase Brown41 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.0 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis224 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Washington4.9 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.9 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 12.0

The model leans Bengals by 12.0, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 28-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs JuJu Brents (Dolphins) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 63% of routes for 8.8/11.3, 78 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Jason Marshall Jr. (Dolphins) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 65% of routes for 5.6/7.1, 60 yds a game - open at will.
  • Landon Robinson (Bengals) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Landon Robinson, winning 57% of reps for 0.2 sacks and 2.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Dolphins' line should hold up: the Bengals win just 52% of their reps, mustering 6.3 sacks and 31.8 pressures a game — Myles Murphy (2.2 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Dolphins — a 50% win rate yields only 3.9 sacks and 10.3 pressures a game, with Joshua Uche (3.3 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Bengals to feed Ja'Marr Chase: 8.8 catches for 78 yds a game, open 63% of the time.
  • The Dolphins will live and die with Malik Washington, who comes open 42% of the time (45 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against DJ Turner II (Bengals): 37% separation allowed, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown sets the tempo for the Bengals — 41 yds a game on the ground at 3.9 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • Ollie Gordon II sets the tempo for the Dolphins — 46 yds a game on the ground at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -12.0
Market lineCIN -7.5
Sim total45
Market total42.5
CIN by 12.0 (84% to win) Projected total 45 pts Joe Burrow ~305 pass yds (250+ 84%) Ollie Gordon II ~46 rush yds (70+ 16%) Ja'Marr Chase ~95 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 70%)