CIN @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CIN Bengals
23
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN54%23
PIT46%21
21
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -1.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
PIT
54% Win Probability 46%
326 Total Yards 367
280 Passing Yards 268
47 Rushing Yards 99
1.7 Sacks 2.8
1.2 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow290 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Chase Brown33 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers280 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren67 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.4 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Germie Bernard5.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 1.9

The sim sides with Bengals: a 1.9-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (23-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 57% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.8 sacks a game, and Dexter Lawrence (2.7 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Steelers — a 52% win rate yields only 6.4 sacks and 25.0 pressures a game, T.J. Watt (1.7 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the go-to for the Bengals, separating on 53% of routes for 70 yds a game.
  • Expect the Steelers to feed D.K. Metcalf: 6.9 catches for 54 yds a game, open 42% of the time.
  • On the back end, Bryan Cook (Bengals) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, adding 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown is the workhorse for the Bengals, churning 33 yds a game at 3.0 a carry against a stingy front.
  • Jaylen Warren sets the tempo for the Steelers — 67 yds a game on the ground at 4.7 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -1.9
Market lineCIN -1.5
Sim total44
Market total47.5
CIN by 1.9 (54% to win) Projected total 44 pts Joe Burrow ~290 pass yds (250+ 60%) Jaylen Warren ~67 rush yds (70+ 36%) Ja'Marr Chase ~90 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 70%)