CIN @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CIN Bengals
22
PROJECTION
CIN 27 – PIT 30
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CIN46%22 27
PIT54%21 30
21
PIT Steelers
✗ RESULT PIT by 3 model CIN by 0.1, off by 3.1
✓ SPREAD PIT +3.5 WIN line at publish CIN -3.5
• TOTAL 57 pts OVER O/U 42.5, model 43

Projected Team Stats

CIN
PIT
46% Win Probability 54%
340 Total Yards 376
300 Passing Yards 268
39 Rushing Yards 108
1.7 Sacks 2.1
1.3 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow307 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Chase Brown25 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.8 rec, 98 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.5 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers273 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.3 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Pat Freiermuth5.0 rec, 52 yds, 0.5 TD

Bengals by 0.1

Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 0.1 and winning 46% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 45 yds on just 39% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jaquan Brisker, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Andrei Iosivas (Bengals) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Jamel Dean, holding him to 17 yds on just 34% open, 0.4 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 50% win rate yields only 3.3 sacks and 10.8 pressures a game, led by Dexter Lawrence (2.4 sacks, 0.2 pressures a game).
  • The Steelers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.2 sacks a game, and T.J. Watt (1.2 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Look for Ja'Marr Chase to eat: 8.3 catches and 75 yds a game for the Bengals.
  • Look for D.K. Metcalf to eat: 5.9 catches and 45 yds a game for the Steelers.
  • In coverage, DJ Turner II (Bengals) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed — and 0.9 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals' run game leans on Chase Brown — 11 carries, 25 yds a game (2.3 a carry) into a stout front.
  • The Steelers lean on Jaylen Warren, 15 carries for 72 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -0.1
Market lineCIN -3.5
Sim total43
Market total42.5
CIN by 0.1 (46% to win) Projected total 43 pts Joe Burrow ~307 pass yds (250+ 78%) Jaylen Warren ~72 rush yds (70+ 40%) Ja'Marr Chase ~98 rec yds, 7.8 rec (70+ 78%)