CIN @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
CIN Bengals
33
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CIN86%33
WAS14%17
17
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take CIN -1.5 +14.3 pts
MARKET CIN -1.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

CIN
WAS
86% Win Probability 14%
444 Total Yards 287
361 Passing Yards 187
83 Rushing Yards 100
3.2 Sacks 2.1
0.9 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow335 pass yds, 2.7 TD
RUSH Chase Brown49 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.9 rec, 102 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.3 rec, 82 yds, 0.7 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels209 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.0 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.9 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Bengals by 15.8

The sim sides with Bengals: a 15.8-point edge and a 86% win rate over 50 runs (33-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 6.6 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 64% of routes for 10.2/12.8, 91 yds a game - open at will.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Mike Sainristil (Commanders) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 65% of routes for 5.9/7.5, 60 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.6 sacks a game — Boye Mafe (2.3 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Commanders get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.1 sacks a game), Odafe Oweh (3.0 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Bengals to feed Ja'Marr Chase: 10.2 catches for 91 yds a game, open 64% of the time.
  • The Commanders lean on Terry McLaurin, good for 5.2 catches and 49 yds a game while breaking open on 49% of his routes.
  • On the back end, Bryan Cook (Bengals) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 29% of routes, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals hand it to Chase Brown early and often, 11 carries for 49 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • The Commanders' run game leans on Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 14 carries, 55 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -15.8
Market lineCIN -1.5
Sim total50
Market total52.5
CIN by 15.8 (86% to win) Projected total 50 pts Joe Burrow ~335 pass yds (250+ 94%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~55 rush yds (70+ 18%) Ja'Marr Chase ~102 rec yds, 7.9 rec (70+ 78%)